The divided continent: understanding Europe’s social landscape in 2020 and beyond

The divided continent: understanding Europe’s social landscape in 2020 and beyond / Sophia Gaston. EPC, 2020.

"The political upheaval and dysfunction of recent years have focused political minds on better understanding the volatility underpinning European electorates. Interest in public opinion research has soared, yet it can be difficult to draw the findings of such surveys and focus groups into something meaningful and cohesive, from which genuine insights can be drawn. It is pertinent that policymakers at both the national and EU institutional levels grasp a clear and incisive idea of what is taking place culturally, socially and politically in EU member states, and that these tea leaves can be interpreted and harnessed to produce responsive, targeted policies.

This research analysis report sets out the findings of a major survey conducted across 13 EU member states (i.e. Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands), which were selected to provide a representative snapshot of the bloc as a whole. This survey was expansive in its scope and unique in its focus on social and cultural issues, as well as politics, leadership and economic security. The data is interpreted through three distinct themes, each of which is likely to play a critical role in Europe’s ‘mood music’ over its coming parliamentary term: nostalgia, intergenerational conflict and democratic legitimacy. These themes have become the subject of much amateur punditry, although institutional understanding of their complex nature is often shallow. Therefore, this paper seeks to shine a more evidenced-based contextual light around their formation and nuances of application.

Chapter 1 considers the theme of nostalgia as a lens through which to explore dissatisfaction with the contemporary social, economic and political settlement. Chapter 2 examines the roles that gender and age play in the formation of public opinion in Europe, focusing particularly on the burgeoning intergenerational and gender-based conflicts brewing across social and political issues. Chapter 3 captures the inconsistent support for democracy across EU member states and interrogates citizens’ preferences for different styles of consensus-driven and more authoritarian forms of leadership. To conclude, reflections on the practical lessons of these trends and their consequences for national and EU-level institutions and political leaders are offered in the report’s final chapter, “Recommendations for Governance”."